Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase from October to November 2023?

Ṁ70Ṁ860

resolved Dec 8

Resolved

ALL

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

The Sahm indicator is a US recession indicator, equal to the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate, and the minimum 3-month average unemployment rate in the preceding 12 months. It is a measure of how rapidly unemployment is increasing.

In October 2023, the SAHM indicator ticked up from .2 to .33, generating some buzz on Twitter.

This market resolves YES if the SAHM indicator linked above is .34 or higher in when data is released for November 2023. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

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predictedNO

Sahm indicator ticked down to 0.30
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

predictedYES

@DanMan314 the unemployment data release is Dec 8th, so you may wish to extend the market close time until then (unless you're deliberately closing early to prevent news trading)

This market is equivalent to "will Nov unemployment be 3.9% or higher". I think they only use the unemployment rate to one decimal place in the input, otherwise unemployment being anything 3.81% or higher would do it.