Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
37
309
Ṁ2.5k
2028
82%
Gavin Newsom
75%
Gretchen Whitmer
72%
Josh Shapiro
69%
Kamala Harris
68%
Jared Polis
66%
JB Pritzker
61%
Pete Buttigieg
60%
Cory Booker
52%
Dean Phillips
52%
Raphael Warnock
52%
Andy Beshear
50%
Wes Moore
50%
Ro Khanna
34%
Gina Raimondo
34%
Roy Cooper
33%
Jay Inslee
29%
Elizabeth Warren
28%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
25%
Chris Murphy
7%
Michelle Obama

This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.

Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are:

The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.

If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page".

When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO.

See also: /DanMan314/who-will-run-for-the-republican-pre

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