Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
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Plus
57
แน€6033
2028
63%
Gavin Newsom
52%
Josh Shapiro
50%
Pete Buttigieg
46%
Gretchen Whitmer
44%
Kamala Harris
37%
Raphael Warnock
37%
Jared Polis
37%
JB Pritzker
34%
Dean Phillips
31%
Gina Raimondo
30%
Ro Khanna
26%
Andy Beshear
25%
Wes Moore
25%
Chris Murphy
23%
Jay Inslee
21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
19%
Cory Booker
19%
Michelle Obama
18%
Roy Cooper
18%
Elizabeth Warren

This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.

Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are:

The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.

If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page".

When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO.

See also: /DanMan314/who-will-run-for-the-republican-pre

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