Will Italy decide to leave the EU by 2040?
Basic
6
Ṁ320
2040
9%
chance

Resolves “yes” if Italy triggers article 50 or leaves the EU through some other means by 1st January 2040, or if a majority in a referendum votes for Italy to leave the EU.

“No” if Italy is still in the EU by 1st January 2040 and hasn’t voted to leave or triggered a leaving mechanism.

N/A if the EU or Italy cease to exist before 1st January 2040. This market is not impacted if either Italy or the EU changes name.

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