Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040? | Manifold

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

17

1kṀ619

2040

25%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Update 2025-07-01 (PST): - Resolution Criteria:
- The market will be resolved based on the date of independence, not the day of the referendum. (AI summary of creator comment)

Collective Autonomy

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opened a Ṁ25,000 YES at 25% order

Limit order added. The UK is absolutely and irreversibly done.

What matters is date of independence, not day of referendum

Calling dibs on saying the question is misresolved if a referendum passes before 2040 but the date of independence is after that

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