Will the current Italian government last for the entire term of office?

Question

Most prime ministers in Italy have served for a relatively short period of time. The average lifespan of an Italian government since the end of World War II is 1.11 years. The shortest-lived government was that of Amintore Fanfani, which lasted only 23 days in 1954. The longest-serving prime minister was Silvio Berlusconi, who served for a total of 9 years and 5 months, from 1994 to 1995, 2001 to 2006, and then again from 2008 to 2011.

The current prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, has been in office since October 2022. Will her government remain in power for the full, uninterrupted 5 year term?

Italian government duration in days:

[image]Market closes at the end of the term (~2027), or before, resolving YES if the government falls.
Resolves N/A if the form of government in Italy changes.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 77% chance (34 traders, as of Oct 5, 2026).