Will Italy be a member state of the European Union by the start of 2030?

Question

This market aims to predict the probability of Italy leaving the EU before the start of 2030.

Will resolve to YES if Italy is still a member state by the start of 2030.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 91% chance (15 traders, as of Apr 12, 2026).