Will Italy decide to leave the EU by 2040?
Will Italy decide to leave the EU by 2040?
6
220Ṁ3202040
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves “yes” if Italy triggers article 50 or leaves the EU through some other means by 1st January 2040, or if a majority in a referendum votes for Italy to leave the EU.
“No” if Italy is still in the EU by 1st January 2040 and hasn’t voted to leave or triggered a leaving mechanism.
N/A if the EU or Italy cease to exist before 1st January 2040. This market is not impacted if either Italy or the EU changes name.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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