If no such launches resolves at 0%.
If 1 such launch resolves at 20%
If 2 such launches resolves at 40%
If 3 such launches resolves at 60%
If 4 such launches resolves at 80%
If 5 or more such launches resolves at 100%
As elsewhere launch requires upward movement as intended. An explosion on pad before takeoff time causing it to rise doesn't count.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1789367327290712532
"Probably 3 to 5 weeks. Objective is for the ship to get past max heating or at least further than last time.Probably 3 to 5 weeks. Objective is for the ship to get past max heating or at least further than last time".
11 May 2024
11 May +5 weeks = 15 June and Musk is well known for being time optimistic.
Just 1 more of a contender?
Getting to 3 seems to be becoming less likely: if it is at 3 week timeframe that is 1 June and gaps are coming down from 4 months to 2.5 months but that isn't a halving of the gap so less than a month seems unlikely even if the hardware is more ready- already done a static fire.
So are we getting to the stage where just 1 is more likely than 3?
Should the price on this market be under 40% now or soon?