Communication application for test flight 5
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=134821&RequestTimeout=1000
Period of operation from 19 July 2024

While this could be changed there isn't much time to do so. There is also lots of info coming out about the next launch being soon in the week prior to launch.

Therefore considering resolving this at 40% without waiting for 30 June unless there are objections to this.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1789367327290712532
"Probably 3 to 5 weeks. Objective is for the ship to get past max heating or at least further than last time.Probably 3 to 5 weeks. Objective is for the ship to get past max heating or at least further than last time".
11 May 2024

11 May +5 weeks = 15 June and Musk is well known for being time optimistic.
Just 1 more of a contender?

Getting to 3 seems to be becoming less likely: if it is at 3 week timeframe that is 1 June and gaps are coming down from 4 months to 2.5 months but that isn't a halving of the gap so less than a month seems unlikely even if the hardware is more ready- already done a static fire.

So are we getting to the stage where just 1 is more likely than 3?

Should the price on this market be under 40% now or soon?

May to October 6 month market at

Back to 50% so exactly 2.5 launches expected. I think it could be 1 2 or 3 but 2 and 3 more likely than 1 so maybe 40-45% is more what I expected