Resolves YES if Jinbaobao's trailing twelve months (TTM) tin production is reported below 40,000 tonnes as of May 31, 2026, based on official company disclosures or authoritative industry reports such as the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association or Jinbaobao's own production statements. This threshold reflects the significant impact of Jinbaobao's recent tin export ban, which covers approximately 12% of global supply and tightens the market amid ongoing geopolitical supply constraints from Myanmar and Indonesia. The market expects production near this level given current disruptions and price incentives above $40/kg. Only primary tin production counts; recycled or refined volumes are excluded. The market settles on the production figure exactly on May 31, 2026.

Jinbaobao's sudden tin export ban, covering 12% of global supply, significantly tightens the market, influencing pricing and availability.

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