MANIFOLD
Will Sangdong mine output exceed 20% of non-Chinese tungsten supply on April 1, 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ50
2027
31%
chance

Resolves YES if Sangdong mine's reported tungsten mine production accounts for more than 20% of the total global tungsten mine supply excluding China on April 1, 2027. Resolution will rely on authoritative production data from Almonty Industries' official reports and USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries or equivalent industry publications available closest to the settlement date. Given Sangdong's commercial production start in early 2026 and its target to supply a substantial share of non-Chinese tungsten, this threshold reflects a critical milestone for supply chain diversification away from China. Only primary mine production counts; recycled tungsten or refined APT volumes do not count towards this metric.

The capacity of Sangdong to significantly alter the non-Chinese tungsten supply landscape is critical for market balance.

Source: Article

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