Cristobal's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -6.88
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Cristobal bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
70%
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried still be speaking at the New York Times / Accenture sponsored DealBook Summit on November 30th at Lincoln Center?YESṀ100
- Will Destiny Reach 609K Subscribers By the End Of 2022?NOṀ30
- Will the Barbie (2023) movie be a box office success within one week of its theatrical release?NOṀ20
80%
90%