The market resolves to YES if the Barbie movie grosses >=2.5 times its cost (production + marketing) in total box office earnings worldwide a week after its theatrical release; else, it resolves to NO.
As of writing, the movie's production budget is $100 million but its marketing budget undisclosed.
Jan 2, 2:14am:
Will the Barbie (2023) movie be a box office success? → Will the Barbie (2023) movie be a box office success within one week of its theatrical release?
I agree with TwirlInhurl here, your metric for "box office success" is wack and the odds on this market should not reflect the odds people would assign to the title of this market.
@Adam Thanks for the input. Have rephrased the title to better reflect the description and odds placed thus far.
@bryantanjw oh wow I did notice the "within a week" bit, that's way more strict
"The market resolves to YES if the Barbie movie grosses >=2.5 times its cost (production + marketing) in total box office earnings worldwide at the end of its opening week"
Why does it need to earn that much in the opening week? Typically, the 2.5 times the budget rule of thumb applies to the complete theatrical run.
@bflytlegmailcom The thinking was that movies with an empirically similar level of hype seem to break even (and then some) at the worldwide box office level during their opening weekends. Beyond the general rule of thumb, I guess the sense of "box office success" here is too attributed to a wow factor typically (and quite arbitrarily) evoked in the first week of release. I admit that a little more thought could've been put into the market resolution, lol.
P.S. better rephrased the market description from "at the end of its opening week" to "a week after its theatrical release" to fit the resolution date.