XComhghall avatar
resolved Nov 25
Will I be the last user to bet on this market?
Resolved
NO

The resolution is NO as of the specified closing time of 11/23 20:00 ET. The market is now open for another day for you to recover losses if you made an incorrect bet.

The market will not close any earlier than, but exactly at, and remain closed after the time specified.

I shall start by bidding 10 mana on it. Every time at least TWO unique (but not necessarily new) users bet on this market, I shall also bet 10 mana. I will not bet again until two users bet on it. If more than two users bet before I am able to get a bet in, I shall bet only once when I do.

If I am the last trader to bet on this market under these rules, it shall resolve YES. Otherwise, it shall resolve NO.

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1
Unknown user avatar
arae
Ṁ103
2
Unknown user avatar
Sjlver
Ṁ61
3
Unknown user avatar
Ethan
Ṁ7
4
Unknown user avatar
icaricia
Ṁ7
5
Unknown user avatar
Isaac
Ṁ7
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XComhghall avatar
XComhghall
is predicting YES at 23%

I pressed the button. Why did it go through ΩДΩ

Anyway, congrats team no.

XComhghall avatar
XComhghall
sold Ṁ2 of YES

The resolution is NO at the specified closing time of 11/23 20:00 ET. The market is now open for another day for you to recover losses if you made an incorrect bet.

XComhghall avatar

* I pressed the Wager button. Why didn't it go through

a avatar
arae
bought Ṁ255 of NO

@XComhghall Trading automatically closes so if you press the Wager button after the close time, it won't go through.

XComhghall avatar

@a I swear I pressed it at 19:59:59. O well.

XComhghall avatar
XComhghall
is predicting NO at 24%

Should selling be considered a bet? I am thinking yes, to impose more restrictions on my bets.

Sjlver avatar
Sjlver
is predicting NO at 26%

@XComhghall Probably yes. At least, Manifold counts sales towards a user's streak.

The real question is whether limit orders and bots count. They were my main reasons for betting NO on this market.

XComhghall avatar

@Sjlver Bots did count in this experiment. If I am the last user on the Trades list / tab, subject to the rules specified in the description, the market resolves yes, otherwise it resolves no.

ManifoldDream avatar

Will I be the last user to bet on this market?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition