How many of the Jan 6 protestors pardoned by Trump will be arrested between market creation and 11:59EST, Jan 6, 2026?
7
1.1kαΉ7982026
3%
0
6%
1
6%
2-4
10%
5-8
21%
9-16
20%
17-32
12%
33-64
7%
65-128
6%
129-256
6%
257-512
6%
513+
President Trump has pardoned nearly 1,600 protestors who were charged with various crimes related to their participation in the Jan 6 Capitol riot. How many will be arrested for any reason between the beginning of this market and the end of Jan 6, 2026?
This market will resolve one week after close.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will anyone who previously received a presidential pardon be charged/prosecuted/arrested by the Trump administration?
23% chance
Will Trump pardon a member of his administration to avoid their prosecution for being held in contempt of court in 2025?
24% chance
Will any January 6th participant pardoned/commuted by Trump be responsible for a homicide before 1/20/2027?
30% chance
At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026
55% chance
If elected in 2024 will Trump issue more than 50 years in total in January 6th related pardons?
75% chance
Will the loser of the 2024 US Presidential election be arrested by 12/31/2025?
4% chance
Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?
70% chance
Will organizers and leaders of protests against Donald Trump in the summer of 2025 be arrested and face federal changes?
70% chance
Will Trump arrest anyone for something that was pardoned (either after the charge, or a per-emptive pardon) under Biden?
35% chance
Will Ghislane Maxwell be pardoned by Trump before 1/1/2029?
5% chance