🏅 Top traders

John Daniel Andries: https://thebaynet.com/piney-point-resident-found-guilty-after-following-petitioner-across-town/

Brent John Holdridge: https://krcrtv.com/north-coast-news/eureka-local-news/arrest-made-in-major-copper-wire-theft-in-arcata

Zachary Jordan Alam: https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/national/capitol-riots/january-6-capitol-riot-zachary-alam-donald-trump-pardon/65-18b573a8-b4c3-4072-9493-67cb405fc2a1

@CraigDemel
Christopher Moynihan https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pardoned-capitol-rioter-charged-threatening-hakeem-jeffries-nyc-trump/
Andrew Taake https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/crime/andrew-taake-jan-6-rioter-rearrested-child-solicitation-b2694092.html
Benjamin Martin https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2025/01/29/man-imprisoned-gun-crimes-jan-6-attack-fact-check/77927861007/
John Banuelos http://cbsnews.com/news/high-profile-us-capitol-riot-defendant-facing-charges-of-kidnapping-and-sexually-assaulting-woman/
Andrew Johnson https://theintercept.com/2025/11/17/pardoned-jan-6-child-abuse-molestation-andrew-paul-johnson/

total: 8


Also daniel ball doesnt count (https://abcnews.go.com/US/jan-6-rioter-case-tossed-after-trump-pardon/story?id=117982390)
he was arrested the morning of the 22nd. This question was created in the evening.

@prismatic Thanks! I think this is right; I will resolve in a day or two just in case anyone else finds something.

@CraigDemel yeah this question caught my interest so I ended up looking into it for an hour but def look for anyone else!

I don't know who's keeping count (and you may want to wait for more mainstream reporting on this), but FWIW: https://bsky.app/profile/meidastouch.com/post/3m3pp2ynlds2u

@WilliamGunn Thanks, resolving 0 and 1 as NO (I didn't do the bookkeeping on the first guy)!

Edit: strike that, at least from my phone I can't do this. But @traders, this market will currently resolve to no less than 2.

Saw a headline there is one in Tennessee

The link by Craig does raise a question. Is being shot to death by cop based on the spirit of the market equivalent to being arrested. If it is, the count is at least three as of more than a month ago

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'm sure there are senses in which it's equivalent, but as the market maker I said "arrested" so I won't count it.

Andrew Taake: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/07/january-6-attacker-arrested

@traders, I know I said "market resolves one week after close", but this seems like a clear resolve NO for 0. What do you think?

@CraigDemel also 1

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Is there a second arrest? Please link!

@CraigDemel the article you linked at the end mentioned someone who got a 10 year sentence and one that was shot dead by cop

@JussiVilleHeiskanen the ten year sentence person, Emily Hernandez, was arrested in 2022, long before market creation: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/01/30/emily-hernandez-sentenced-fatal-car-crash/78047420007/

Impossible to resolve this type of market. Good luck tracking arrest status of 1600 people through 3000+ jurisdictions (in the US alone, the rules technically include all countries).

@MaybeNotDepends I'm counting on Mother Jones etc to do a lot of the work for me.

https://manifold.markets/JeffBerman/how-many-fbi-informants-will-be-sho

Related: https://manifold.markets/jb456/will-any-january-6th-participant-pa

One down https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/23/january-6-pardon-man-arrested

@johnwhiles Need to see whether it was before market creation, but yes, this sort of thing!