If Trump is convicted, will he be pardoned? (2028)
21
84
430
2028
38%
chance

Trump, as well as some other Republican candidates, might pardon Trump if they become the president and Trump is convicted. But will they actually do so?

Resolves to N/A if all of Trump's investigations are closed without convictions. Resolves yes if Trump has been pardoned by the president by the 2028 election day. Resolves no if Trump has not been pardoned by the time. If the pardon is challenged by the courts, this will resolve yes regardless.

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What if he declares a self-pardon and self-pardons are subsequently ruled to be unconstitutional?

predicts NO

@Jai As I explained in the description, only a pardon attempt is necessary for this to resolve as a yes.

What about state convictions? The President cannot pardon those.

Georgia does not permit pardons by anybody.

bought Ṁ15 of NO

@NiallWeaver Well then he can't be pardoned. Still, he only needs to be pardoned on a single conviction for this to resolve to yes.