At least 20 pardoned Jan 6 rioters involved in politically motivated violence by end of 2026
12
1kแน19402026
56%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if 20 or more individuals who received pardons for January 6-related charges are reported by major news outlets (ABC News, NBC News, etc.) to be involved in new politically motivated violence by December 31, 2026.
Politically motivated violence includes: physical assault, property damage, threats against public figures, or other violent acts with clear political motivation.
References:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
How many of the Jan 6 protestors pardoned by Trump will be arrested between market creation and 11:59EST, Jan 6, 2026?
Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?
70% chance
Will any January 6th participant pardoned/commuted by Trump be responsible for a homicide before 1/20/2027?
30% chance
Will Trump Pardon Snowden by the end of 2025?
21% chance
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd by the end of 2026?
16% chance
Donald Trump gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032
23% chance
Will Edward Snowden be pardoned by 2025?
8% chance
If elected in 2024 will Trump issue more than 50 years in total in January 6th related pardons?
75% chance
Will SBF receive a presidential pardon by end 2026?
6% chance
Will Trump pardon tiger king by the end of 2026?
24% chance