Update 2025-03-18 (PST): • Arrest without an indictment qualifies as a YES.
• Detainment is required for a YES; if Trump issues a bench warrant but does not detain, it resolves as a NO.
• If someone is formally charged but not arrested by the end of Trump's term (e.g. due to fleeing, dying, or dropped charges), it resolves as a NO.
• In cases where someone whose pardon was revoked is detained without a formal charge or trial, the resolution will be determined using a good faith interpretation based on hypothetical media reporting or an explicit claim by Trump. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000For clarifications sake.
An arrest could be made without an indictment (this would resolve as YES). This market WILL require some for of detainment. Trump issuing some form of bench warrant, but then just not acting on it will resolve as a NO. If someone is formally charged, but for whatever reason is not arrested by the end of Trump's term (such as fleeing the country, dying, charges being dropped, ect.), market will resolve as no.
Alternative, if someone whose pardon was revoked is detained without a formal charge/trial, I will use good faith interpretation of the markets to resolve accordingly. I would base this decision based off of hypothetical media reporting on the matter, or if Trump explicitly claims that they are detained for something that was previously pardoned.