Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2029 (11:59 PM EST), any high-profile political opponent, prosecutor, or prominent critic of Donald Trump is sentenced to active incarceration and physically enters a state or federal prison/correctional facility to serve that sentence. If no such individual begins serving a prison sentence by the deadline, the market will resolve to NO.

Key Definitions:

• "Go to prison": This requires an active, non-suspended sentence of imprisonment. Mere arrest, booking, temporary pre-trial detention (unless it ultimately counts toward a prison sentence served during the market window), probation, fines, or home confinement does not qualify. The individual must be remanded to or report to a state or federal correctional facility to serve their sentence.

• "Trump's opponents": This refers to high-profile political rivals, prosecutors who have led cases against Trump, or prominent former administration officials turned public critics. A non-exhaustive list of qualifying individuals includes:

  • John Bolton (former National Security Advisor)

  • James Comey (former FBI Director)

  • Letitia James (New York Attorney General)

  • Joe Biden

  • Hunter Biden

  • Hillary Clinton

  • Kamala Harris

  • Alvin Bragg (Manhattan District Attorney)

  • Fani Willis (Fulton County District Attorney)

  • Jack Smith (former Special Counsel)

  • Liz Cheney (former US Representative)

  • Adam Schiff (US Senator)

  • Barack Obama

  • Nancy Pelosi

  • Anthony Fauci

  • Andrew McCabe / Peter Strzok / John Brennan (Other equivalent major national political figures, prosecutors, or high-profile critics targeted by Trump or his administration will also qualify, subject to the creator's common-sense consensus based on major news reporting).

Source of Truth: Credible national news outlets (e.g., AP News, Reuters, New York Times, Washington Post) confirming that a qualifying individual has surrendered to or been placed in a state or federal prison facility to begin serving a sentence.

Background

Following Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, his administration has actively pursued investigations and criminal charges against multiple public figures who have publicly opposed or prosecuted him:

• John Bolton: In October 2025, former National Security Advisor John Bolton was indicted on federal counts related to the mishandling and retention of classified information. On June 26, 2026, Bolton pleaded guilty to a single felony count of unlawfully retaining national defense information. Under his plea agreement, he faces up to five years in prison, with his sentencing scheduled for October 28, 2026.

• James Comey: Former FBI Director James Comey has faced multiple federal charges. Most recently, in April 2026, he was indicted on felony charges of making threats against the president via a social media post of seashells spelling "86 47".

• Letitia James: New York Attorney General Letitia James was indicted in October 2025 on federal bank fraud charges. While a federal judge dismissed the indictment in November 2025 due to the unlawful appointment of the interim U.S. Attorney, the Department of Justice has appealed the ruling and continues to pursue charges.