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MANIFOLD
How many FBI informants will be shown to have been involved in the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021?
22
Ṁ1kṀ7k
Jan 1
5%
Zero
9%
1-10
58%
11-30
11%
31-60
20%
61-100
20%
More than 100

Resolves upon reporting in the mainstream media.

  • Update 2026-04-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not resolve yet as the matter is still under investigation by the DOJ. Resolution is pending the conclusion of that investigation.

Market context
US Democracy
Crime
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Resolves to 26?

Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-intelligence-investigating-whether-fbi-involved-2020-capitol-riot-2025-04-09/
Original DoJ watchdog report: https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/reports/25-011.pdf

@hidetzugu @JeffBerman

@hidetzugu @mods I figure it's been long enough with no activity. This should resolve to 26 (the 11-30 bucket)

@hidetzugu

Still under investigation by DOJ.

bought Ṁ150 NO

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/doj-ig-reveals-number-fbi-confidential-sources-ground-during-jan-6

@CraigDemel Yes, I’ve seen this. Thank you. It seems the full story is not yet written.

bought Ṁ10 NO

A couple clarifications:

  • Only one option resolves yes, right?

  • Does 'involved' mean secretly inciting the riots, or just any effect at all (including working to infiltrate or stop the rioters)?

@TheAllMemeingEye

Only one option resolves this, yes.

Involved means present at the events in the Capitol.

@JeffBerman thanks 👍

bought Ṁ100 NO

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/25/us/politics/capitol-riot-fbi-informant.html

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