1
Will China launch a boots-on-the-ground invasion on Taiwan?
9
closes Dec 31
5%
chance

Resolves true if Chinese troops land or attempt to land on the island of Taiwan, plainclothes troops count if they are discovered in large numbers (>1000) but spies don't count

Related markets

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?45%
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?29%
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?50%
Will China initiate an offensive military operation against Taiwan by the end of October?7%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?6%
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?19%
If China invaded Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US64%
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2024?8%
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?30%
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?23%
Conditional on China invading Taiwan and preemptively attacking U.S. bases, does the Chinese invasion succeed?54%
Will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2023?4%
Conditional on China invading Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases and the U.S. intervening militarily, does the Chinese invasion succeed?27%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2023?3%
10. Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2023?5%
Conditional on China invading Taiwan and NOT preemptively attacking U.S. bases, does the Chinese invasion succeed?49%
Conditional on China invading Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases and the U.S. NOT intervening militarily, does the Chinese invasion succeed?74%
In what month will China invade Taiwan?
Conditional on China invading Taiwan and NOT preemptively attacking U.S. bases, does the U.S. intervene militarily?58%