The NYT recently put out an editorial with the dramatic title Harris or Trump? The Prophet of Presidential Elections Is Ready to Call the Race.

It’s about a guy named Allan Lichtman who uses a silly overfit model to predict elections. Here’s Nate Silver’s takedown (from 2011!), and here’s a Manifold market on whether he’ll be “right” this year. (He thought Biden would win up until the bitter end, btw, but he thinks Harris has the advantage in the Keys now, and she may win or lose, of course.)

In a perfect world, Lichtman wouldn’t get airtime, but alas, the NYT is covering him. (I haven’t checked whether they did in past years - this would be a good forecasting step.) Will they similarly positively cover the Keys in 2028?

My standard for “positively cover”: If they write an article about the Keys that mentions criticism or caveats, that’s fine. It’s only if the overall tone of the article is negative or dismissive toward the Keys where I wouldn’t count it (and would be happy).

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.