I will go based on Lichtman’s interpretation of the Keys. (If he does not provide one, I will do my best to interpret the Keys.)
However, I will adjudicate afterward whether he was correct (since he has moved goalposts in 2000 + 2016).
Lichtman claims that the Keys have predicted every presidential election since 1984. Many, such as myself, are skeptical. Newsletter forthcoming :)
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
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@bagelfan I genuinely mean it. I'll continue to live by the statement I have in my bio. I'm on this site to reach truth and eat my words when I am off target.
I hope I have fulfilled your expectations for this conversation.
@Quroe Oh, ok! I'm just surprised that you changed your mind that quickly.
It's good that you're open minded. That's one of the traits of a good predictor: be a fox, not a hedgehog
@PlasmaBallin i'm starting to think most predicting is so hard because nobody knows anything. At least not on a consistent basis, there might be things here and there where there is an edge to be had with knowledge.
Like how do you even trade? In theory if you buy and sell many times over for a price difference, there is some profit. Like bookmakers kind of do it, they have also no idea what is going to happen.