Will Nate Silver know who I am at all at the end of Manifest? (see description)
closes Sep 25

At the end of Manifest, I will resolve to my estimated probability that if Nate Silver was given an element of the set

{my name (Jacob Cohen),

my username (Conflux),

what I look like,

any other relevant fact about me},

he would be able to map it to any other element of that set. (This is the maximum probability among all such elements that could be given to Nate.)

For example, if I thought my best shot was Nate seeing what I look like, and I thought he had a 30% chance of knowing that that person is the cohost of the Market Manipulation Podcast, I would resolve 30%. Hopefully this all makes sense?

I will round probabilities to the nearest 10% for this market. I may incorporate guesses from others as to what this probability is at conference's end.


General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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