Will Aella know who I am at all at the end of Manifest? (see description)
7
resolved Sep 26
Resolved as
70%

At the end of Manifest, I will resolve to my estimated probability that if @Aella was given an element of the set

{my name (Jacob Cohen),

my username (Conflux),

what I look like,

any other relevant fact about me},

she would be able to map it to any other element of that set. (This is the maximum probability among all such elements that could be given to Aella.)

For example, if I thought my best shot was Aella seeing what I look like, and I thought she had a 30% chance of knowing that that person is the cohost of the Market Manipulation Podcast, I would resolve 30%. Hopefully this all makes sense?

I will round probabilities to the nearest 10% for this market. I may incorporate guesses from others as to what this probability is at conference's end.

Related

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get į¹€500 play money

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Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

Chatted with her for a few minutes during the conference! She seemed attentive and I believe wrote down something I mentioned. Iā€™m also fairly different from the typical Manifest attendee in some ways. Still, she probably talked to lots of people. Comes down to how good she is with faces/names and how much I actually stuck in her memory, I think 70% is reasonable