Did @levifinkelstein go on a date with a cute nerdy guy in 2023? (resolves to poll)
resolved Jun 23
Resolved as

If the linked market resolves NO, this one will also resolve NO. However, if it resolves YES, after Levi(na) provides their evidence, I will conduct a 12-hour poll on the Manifold Discord asking whether people feel Levi(na) went on a date with a cute nerdy guy, with options YES and NO. I will then resolve to the percentage of YES responses in that poll, ignoring any suspected manipulation.

I'm excited to see Levina's evidence for resolving YES!

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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predicted YES

I think you should ignore all the bettors in this market from the poll. For example me, genzy, maymeta, etc..

@levifinkelstein I’m not changing the resolution criteria after the fact

predicted YES

@Conflux your criteria says to avoid manipulation, I think we can assume most of the bettors are at least somewhat biased and hence their votes are a form of manipulation.

@levifinkelstein I’m not that interested in making this complicated. If you have strong evidence that someone voted against their own belief or something else, I’ll consider it. However, I think the votes are consistent with your evidence just not being very strong.

predicted YES

I’ll provide two weeks for @levifinkelstein to release the video.

I don't think we'll get any evidence either way, but the original market 'should' resolve YES if the other party genuinely thought it was a date / if they met on a dating app, and NO if the other party was a friend who he had lunch with, even if levi joked that 'haha this month's lunch will be a DATE because i want to win some internet points'

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack What if I have a friend and I ask them "do you want to on a date with me" and they say "Yes, where do you want to go?" 😃 And then we go to a restaurant like people do on dates?

Can now change title from "will" to "did".

Assuming levi does not want to the identity of himself or the person he (supposedly) went on a date with, what kind of evidence could be supplied that would make people here vote YES?

predicted NO

@hmys why would someone make a personal market if they aren't going to share personal details?

predicted YES

@Stralor Idk what you mean by "personal market", but my intention in creating this market was definitely not to dox myself. So if that's what you mean by "personal market" this is not one of those.

@levifinkelstein The original point stands. Your face and the face of the person in question is not information that can dox you, if you don’t want those shared you should not have created this market

I have seen no evidence that this person was cute, nor nerdy, nor even a guy. Just a photo of Levi eating with someone. But that's already more proof than @Hyperpolitan was willing to fabricate, I'll give him that.

I'm glad Levi got outside and ate a meal. I'm sad that he keeps making those dumb trick-markets. I currently intend to vote NO in the poll.

predicted NO

@MayMeta agreed. it's a fucking hurley t-shirt in an AI generated smudge

predicted NO

@Stralor I need to stop betting on his markets, he capriciously resolves against people all the time purely for profit

predicted NO

@MayMeta I’m surprised people were so confident that the proof would be legit

@Conflux so nice to be pansexual, honestly. For me It would've been much easier to take a photo kissing someone nerdy on their cheek, regardless of their gender.

Oh well. Not making markets like that any time soon anyways.

@MayMeta truth. maybe I should get back on tinder...

@Conflux I really was, we established multiple times it would probably not be, and people keep betting in Levi's markets. STOP BETTING IN LEVI'S MARKETS IF YOU KNOW THEY AREN'T LEGIT

predicted NO

@levifinkelstein Do you have more evidence you want to provide, or should I conduct the poll now?

@Conflux He said a video is coming soon too

@Conflux Will the onlyfans video be included if it's behind a paywall? seems unreasonable

@Conflux You can conduct the poll now, the video might take a while given that I'm currently out travelling and don't feel like doing a bunch of editing rn.

predicted YES

@Conflux if the poll determines this market to resolve NO, but later a definitive proof is posted that confirms the date, will you ask for the market to be re-resolved?

predicted NO

@firstuserhere I wanna wait before conducting the poll until Levi states they’ve released all evidence they plan to release. I don’t plan to get the market re-resolved after that point

@Conflux Levi said to run the poll! I've already bet accordingly with the assumption that the (definitely real video) will not be available for this poll 😭

predicted NO

@Gen I'm not waiting for Levi's permission to run the poll, I'm waiting for them to state they've released all evidence.

predicted NO

@Conflux (obviously if this takes a really long time, such that it seems likely that the video will never be released, I'll just do the poll, but I'll wait a bit for now)