Will I (Aella) find someone to seriously date by the end of 2029?
1.7k
2030
71%
chance

If myself and a romantic partner both estimate our chances that we'll end up trying a life partnership thing, and our estimates average out to 40% or higher, and it's before the end of 2029, then this market will resolve YES.


We don't have to have a 40% or higher estimate at the end of 2029 for this market to resolve YES, it just needs to happen at any point before the end of 2029.

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Does Aella exclusively date men? (answer optional ofc)

@Lorelai No, but they decided to stick to one gender for this event

@Stralor it doesn't seem to specify a gender? I'm more likely to answer 'yes' if she dates women too

bought Ṁ10 of NO

"40% average" is not a working criteria.

Right now, any person, with whom you would estimate 0% chances of partnership, can say 100% and it would be 50% in average.

Is it okay for you, that this market yes resolution can be triggered by just one person?

Wouldn't it be better to set criteria to 75%, so if one goes crazy and gives 100%, the other has to estimate the chances at lest 50%.

predicts NO

@KongoLandwalker In her blog post about dating Nate Soares, they only made a "life-partnership" estimate after many weeks of an intense trial with honest communication. Also, she doesn't say exactly what is being averaged—if it's the log-odds, she can keep going lower to outweigh any bad-faith high value.

predicts NO

@LoganTurner so she HAS to make a non-blind estimate after the potential partner makes his estimate, so she can base of that. If logodds are used, he can also make unimaginable high number to outweigh any low value.

That is silly and unequal rights of the partners.

There is no need to give a certain number definitions if the scale or number axis is unknown.

we'll all be dead

predicts YES

@victorforissier meet the power couple trying to save the humankind