Will I make at least 100 Metaculus predictions by end of April?
19
66
แน€390
resolved May 1
Resolved
NO

I just made an account on the forecasting website Metaculus and made 11 predictions. I'm more inclined towards betting than just predicting, and the markets seem to be a bit more serious/esoteric than Manifold, though there are certainly some politics questions I'm interested in, and it seems like a cool concept. I've definitely heard a fair bit about Metaculus. I could take it or leave it.

I promise not to intentionally alter my Metaculus behavior to manipulate this market.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get แน€1,000 play money

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Lame. This sounds even more boring than play money.

Is Metaculus a prediction market?

Sort of. Like a prediction market, Metaculus aims to aggregate many people's information, expertise, and predictive power into high-quality forecasts. However, prediction markets generally operate using real or virtual currency, which is used to buy and sell shares in "event occurrence." The idea is that people buy (or sell) shares if they think that the standing prices reflect too low (or high) a probability in that event. Metaculus, in contrast, directly solicits predicted probabilities from its users, then aggregates those probabilities. We believe that this sort of "prediction aggregator" has both advantages and disadvantages relative to a prediction market.

Advantages of Metaculus over prediction markets

Metaculus has several advantages over prediction markets. One is that Metaculus forecasts are scored solely based on accuracy, while prediction markets may be used for other reasons, such as hedging. This means that sometimes prediction markets may be distorted from the true probability by bettors who wish to mitigate their downside risk if an event occurs.

@Mira the average question quality is high on Metaculus, which makes it fun if you like serious forecasting