[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
8
27
Ṁ279Ṁ170
2029
75%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.
This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.
Get Ṁ200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
58% chance
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
47% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
67% chance
Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2035?
47% chance
Will we be able to control the weather before 2045?
22% chance
Will an AI model be used for operational weather forecasts by the end of 2024?
66% chance
Will Metaculus be around in 10 years?
60% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
18% chance
[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?
82% chance