Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2030?
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2031
82%
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Resolves No if Metaculus permanently shuts down or stops working.
If it is still working, resolves Yes.

If Metaculus does something unexpected e.g. merge with Manifold Markets: resolves Yes if questions made before the merger still work afterwards.
No if those questions permanently stop working.

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The title asks about active forecasting “throughout”, but what about temporary halts to forecasting?

How will you resolve if active forecasting stops for just 1 day? 1 week? 1 month? 1 year?

@ScroogeMcDuck Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I mostly meant throughout as in until the end of 2030, as opposed to until 01.01 .2030.

I would say after 2400 hours of no forecasting or viewing forecasts this resolves NO even if they bring the site back up afterwards.

So if it is down for e.g. 500 hours but then goes up again with the questions and forecasts from before still available it won't resolve No.

If somehow 25% of questions go missing it also resolves No.

If it is down when this market would resolve I wait to see if it will go back up within the 2400 hours. If it doesn't, the market resolves No.

Does this sound good?

@justifieduseofFallibilism Got it, so it's NO if:


  1. >=100 days of no forecasting or viewing forecasts

  2. >=25% of questions go missing

...Otherwise YES.

I like the clause that you'll wait to resolve if it happens to be down at the resolution time.

Sounds good.