Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, as of January 1, 2050, the forecasting platform "Metaculus" is actively operating. Active operation is defined by meeting at least one of the following conditions:

• The website metaculus.com (or an official, redirected successor domain) is online, functional, and actively hosting a forecasting or prediction aggregation service under the "Metaculus" name.

• The legal entity Metaculus Inc. (or a corporate successor that acquired it) remains active and continues to operate a public-facing forecasting or decision-intelligence platform under the "Metaculus" brand.

This market will resolve to NO if, as of January 1, 2050, the platform has shut down, the domain has been abandoned, parked, or sold to an unrelated entity (such as a domain squatter or an entirely different line of business), or the brand has been retired and no longer operates forecasting services.

The market will be resolved using the live status of the website, corporate registry filings, or credible technology industry reporting in 2050.

Background

Metaculus was founded in 2015 by Anthony Aguirre, Max Wainwright, and Greg Laughlin. It is incorporated as a Delaware Public Benefit Corporation (Metaculus Inc.) with the mission of improving human reasoning and coordination on global issues through crowdsourced, calibrated forecasting. Over a multi-decade timeframe, the platform faces challenges and opportunities ranging from corporate acquisition and restructuring to the evolution of AI-driven forecasting engines. This market asks whether the Metaculus brand and platform will persist to the mid-21st century.