Resolves based on the consensus view on November 14th. If that means resolving to different options at different probabilities, that's fine. I may resolve earlier if it's clear earlier.

(I added some people mentioned in the replies, but could be anyone.)

I won't bet after my initial setting of probabilities.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.