This market resolves YES if Moscow city (not the whole oblast) suffers from widespread fuel shortages before 1 December 2026. It resolves NO if no such shortage occurs until then.
Indicators of a shortage could include, amongst others:
Fuel rationing is instituted
Very long queues at gas stations
The government declares a state of emergency concerning fuel
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Russian cities feel the pinch amid worsening fuel shortages
Even Moscow, the political and economic heart of the country that has largely been protected from the consequences of the war, has begun to feel the effects. Many petrol stations across the capital have temporarily closed after disruption at one of the city’s largest refineries after a Ukrainian drone strike in June.
“One positive is that I’ve started walking more instead of constantly driving everywhere,” one Muscovite said, estimating that waiting times for petrol had risen to between one and two hours.
@CommanderKeen Closure of gas stations is not mentioned in resolution criteria. Neither rationing, nor state of emergency is instituted. As for queue, there are some, but they are definitely not very long
@CommanderKeen This map does not preclude long queues per-se, but it shows on which gas stations people recently payed with cards from T-Bank (third largest banks in Russia by number of cards issued)
@Egor This question was not about whether gas stations are closed or rationing is instated, those are just indicators of a fuel shortage, not necessary preconditions for this question to resolve YES. I resolved YES because I think that there are now widespread fuel shortages in Moscow city. I feel that the article I quoted is clear about that:
Even Moscow, the political and economic heart of the country that has largely been protected from the consequences of the war, has begun to feel the effects. Many petrol stations across the capital have temporarily closed after disruption at one of the city’s largest refineries after a Ukrainian drone strike in June.
“One positive is that I’ve started walking more instead of constantly driving everywhere,” one Muscovite said, estimating that waiting times for petrol had risen to between one and two hours.
@CommanderKeen I see that you believe your criteria had been met. I just do not think that quoted article provides good evidence for them. One person in 13-million city says he had to wait for more than 1 hour. Many petrol stations are closed. Both those things may well be true. But, to provide some context, those stations are owned by independent sellers. Stations, owned by oil majors (Rosneft, Gazpromneft, Lukoil) are working. And they are spread all over Moscow, so there's always one of them nearby. Where I live, one has to wait for 10-15 minutes in queue. It's longer than usual, but not nearly comparable to what other parts of Russia (where there is a shortage) are experiencing.
I understand that this market's resolution is up to your subjective assessment of situation, I just feet that it is incorrect.
@Egor If people have to wait for 15 minutes where previously they didn't, and that is widespread, then I would count that alone as a sure sign of a shortage. That the situation in other regions is worse, was to be expected
@CommanderKeen Nope, that is caused by increased demand in expectation of potential future shortage.
Suppose people massively increase the quantity of toilet paper they buy in expectation of potential future lockdowns. The can still buy it, albeit with some additional waiting time. Does that count as shortage of toilet paper for you?