This market resolves YES if there are documented instances of long queues (>1 hour wait time) for basic consumer goods in at least 3 major Russian cities during 2025, as reported by major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg). Resolution will be based on multiple independent reports.
Sources: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/03/is-the-kremlin-overconfident-about-russias-economic-stability https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/risks-russias-two-speed-economy-2025
This is a duplicate of this market, but with the length extended to include 2026.
Background
Russia's economy faces significant challenges due to international sanctions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While the Kremlin projects confidence about economic stability, some experts warn of potential shortages and economic instability in the future. Currently, there are no widespread queues for basic goods in major Russian cities, but historical precedent from the 1990s shows that such situations can develop rapidly under economic stress.
Resolution Criteria
Market resolves YES if ALL of the following conditions are met during 2025 or 2026:
Documented queues with wait times exceeding 1 hour for basic consumer goods (food, hygiene products, etc.)
Queues must occur in at least 3 different major Russian cities
Evidence must be verified through:
Reports from multiple major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg)
Multiple independent sources confirming the same events
Market resolves NO if:
Insufficient evidence of queues meeting the above criteria
Queues occur in fewer than 3 cities
Considerations
Major Russian cities (pop. >1M) include Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Chelyabinsk, Samara, Omsk, Rostov-on-Don, Ufa, Krasnoyarsk, and Voronezh
Update 2026-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Gas/fuel does not count as a basic consumer good for resolution purposes. Queues for gas alone will not trigger a YES resolution.
1,000People are also trading
@JoshParchure For example food or hygiene products.
Don't worry, this is not a gotcha question, I have banned myself from betting, too. I think that if these queues comes to be, it will be quite clear
@CommanderKeen I just realized that while I did in fact ban myself from betting here, I already had placed bets a year ago, back when the banning system wasn't in place yet. I have since stopped betting on my own questions as a principle, but this question was from before I made that decision. I will still try to resolve this question as objectively as possible, of course.
there are now queues for gas all over. perhaps below 1h on average in major cities, perhaps not.
does gas count as a basic consumer good?
would it suffice absent queues for anything else?
@mxxun You know what, I hadn't even considered a possible fuel shortage in Russia back when I created this question. I would never have guessed back then...
In any case, since I didn't mention gas in the description and I would not count gas as a basic consumer good, I will not resolve this question solely based on the current queues for gas. That being said, I feel that this current gas shortage, should it continue, will make queues for basic goods inevitable...
@CommanderKeen I'd bet against! (i mean. i am.)
my reasoning is something like: russia generally does not cap prices, and so doesn't have ~chronic deficits where people need to pay with their time in the queue instead of with money.
on top of that, queues are the national nightmare (of soviet deficits), and political administration will go to nontrivial ends to avoid that; which it can do uncomplicatedly by not capping the prices as per above.
i heard it said that gas is not a huge component of the price of general goods, 10% at the very most, and so e.g. even a 50% price hike won't be unprecedented, inflation-wise.
which leaves the question of what's up with the gas now. aiui the ~problem is that (fairly nationalized) gas companies are unwilling to uncap the prices and let the market move the gas where it's needed; and also, while it could be redistributed ~by government/administrative command, there're not enough people in position to order that who're willing to ~take responsibility for it. (prognostically, probably equilibration happens eventually, just slowly.)
as to whether some other good will suffer an equally sudden diminished supply, effectively capped price, and lack of will to import/distribute enough, for weeks......i don't know. aiui ukraine generally does not target nonmilitary industries, but what do i know about military uses, or dual-use precursors, of all the consumer goods there are.