Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, the Russian Federation officially enacts legislation or a government decree that introduces a general exit visa (or travel permit) requirement for Russian citizens seeking to travel abroad.

To trigger a YES resolution, the requirement must:

• Apply to the general population of Russian citizens (or a broad subset, such as any citizen traveling to "unfriendly" or NATO countries).

• Require citizens to obtain prior official government permission, an exit visa, or approval before they are legally allowed to cross the border to leave Russia.

This market will resolve to NO if:

• No such universal or broad-based exit visa/permit requirement for Russian citizens is legally enacted by the deadline.

• Restrictions remain limited only to specific individual categories that exist under current Russian law (e.g., military conscripts, individuals with access to state secrets, or people with outstanding debts/court orders).

• The only "exit visas" required are those issued to foreign nationals who have overstayed their entry visas in Russia, which is the pre-existing practice.

Verification sources: Resolution will be based on official legislative publications from the Russian government's legal information portal (pravo.gov.ru) and reports from reputable international or independent Russian media outlets (such as Reuters or Meduza).

Background

In July 2026, reports surfaced from the independent Russian outlet Mozhem Obyasnit ("We Can Explain") claiming that the Russian Foreign Ministry and presidential administration were drafting legislation to restrict outbound travel. The reports alleged that the government planned to introduce Soviet-style restrictions, initially requiring citizens traveling to NATO countries to do so only in pre-approved groups of 10 or more under the supervision of an escort.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova denied the reports, calling them "nonsense" and dismissing them as disinformation. While Russia's constitution guarantees the right to leave the country, observers note that geopolitical tensions and martial law frameworks in border regions leave open the possibility of future travel restrictions. This market monitors whether a formal exit visa policy is implemented by the end of 2026.