Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2036?
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2036?
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If there is the same resolution criteria as the 2026 market, then the title doesn't matter. Odds should be the same.
@MaybeNotDepends Using the "same" rules when you don't mean it is just laziness and bad market rules writing.
@MaybeNotDepends the market is perfectly clear, you are being intentionally obtuse in an ironically failed attempt at pedantry
predictedYES 2y
@connorwilliams97 WaPo claims 14k arrests: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/22/who-caused-violence-protests-its-not-antifa/ so yes
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People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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