Manifold up to some shenanigans on the backend

I'm glad that we are looking at past shenanigans to make the League fairer. Here are some other ones to look at

@PC

@PC If anyone wants me to investigate any other ones, DM me on discord :)

I'll personally give some of the top yes bettors some of their mana back bc I feel bad about that 98% statement I naively made in Discors.

I dont think it's necessary, but I want to do it.

@SirSalty also next time I make a bold statement like that maybe I should actually bet accordingly so I'm held to it 😂

Can confirm there is still no decision yet

@MarcusAbramovitch I furthermore expect this to take a few days

@MarcusAbramovitch https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-pc

Will AI wipe out humanity before PC gets punished for profit manipulation?

50% chance. It seems pretty uncertain, tbh

Criteria never said admins had to be responsible for the punishment. PC should have punished himself and bet YES, would have made a killing.

Placing a large no limit order for anyone with more faith than me lol.

One problem we have here is that it is almost midnight in @CodeandSolder's timezone so he is presumably asleep and can't clarify further, but this is the latest thing he said and I think open to debate?

We have largely moved on from deciding if he should be punished and are specifically looking for what exactly and how much for each.

Last ditch-lobbying effort: Y'all should authorize @SemioticRivalry to resolve this market to Marcus:

This will simplify all the math you have to do, once you can see the finalized profits and losses here. It would also count as punishment of PC.

I believe it is undisputed that PC gained more than 30k directly from profit manipulation, yes?

I'd similiarly like to resolve my own market here:

fight

If anybody wants to summarize information for me or give an opinion, ill happily paste it in the discord channel

@MarcusAbramovitch My opinion is that the statute of limitations has passed. I think that the admins should write clear guidelines for the future but the whole focus around "profit manipulation" just to win a monthly league competition without actually scamming/generating/cheating anyone out of actual mana (just "profits") is silly.

The only way to really stop this without inducing an insane burden on the admins is simply to change or regulate how mana transfers occur. As long as people can trade mana for profits with one another, they can bypass the "no alts" rule.

@BenjaminShindel There is no statute of limitations here. What PC did violated the rules that were announced before they did it, and following that SirSalty said that he was going to get around to eventually after he wasn't busy with Manifest.

The only way to really stop this without inducing an insane burden on the admins is simply to change or regulate how mana transfers occur. As long as people can trade mana for profits with one another, they can bypass the "no alts" rule.

Nearly impossible. Do you have any practical suggestions for how to stop it that are not easily evaded?

Ill share that consensus seems to be that at least some of his actions warrant punishment. Exact ones are somewhat debated.

Overall, the most consensus seems to be that "sending WiggleMan money to intentionally lose it to him on the league markets" should be punished. and "Poll: PC used the @RB alt account to push up the LK-99 market so Marcus gets unrealized losses, while insulating himself from any losses. Does this action deserve punishment?" seems to have all in favour of yes as well.

There is still debate on what the punishment should be and how it's implemented. Do we change league profits. Do we only change PC's profits. etc.

Furthermore, people don't seem to think bribing the mana farmers with Ukrainian charity donations to manipulate engagement markets should be punished.

@MarcusAbramovitch FYI the reason I was annoyed about the engagement market stuff wasn’t because it was rule-breaking, it’s because he was shaming manipulators and soliciting promises/guarantees not to manipulate both publicly & behind the scenes and then went nuclear to win anyway.

I think when an admin on a prediction market says there's a 98% something will happen, then the market about that thing happening should rise to 98% or something has gone very wrong.

It's in the public interest that this market resolve yes, to send a message that moderation is a priority and that future moderation will also happen in a timely manner.

I obviously have a profit motive here, but I think that it is virtuous to bet up markets about moderation happening so that the admins can in turn look to these markets to see when moderation needs to happen. If you break the public trust in that system, then you break what should be a massively beneficial part of moderating a prediction market.

Literally just fine him one mana.

@Joshua disagree with fining him 1 mana just to make this market resolve

The timeline of them only having 6 hours to make the decision is obviously unfortunate. Here's another market with an end date of the end of the year:

@MarcusAbramovitch I mean, the fining him 1 mana is obviously silly but this entire situation of y'all being asked to make a decision in one day with this market hanging in the balance is silly. It's a very easy decision that some punishment should occur, but a complicated decision of exactly what that should be. I see no reason not to just announce the easy decision and then take your time with the complicated one.

@Joshua Couldn't the council just issue a statement like "We have decided to punish PC, but we still need to decide how"? That would resolve this market, per the comments by OP.

I think that would also be perfectly reasonable.

Honestly I think the council should just do whatever they'd do independently of this market? It's not their job to try to make it resolve in the 'right' way.

I also don't really see how the common-sense meaning of the title would let that resolve the market yes, but that's debatable

Yeah, markets coming down to the wire is just a routine part of using Manifold. It's not anybody's job to reduce bettors' stress levels.

@Joshua to be fair, @SirSalty DID make a decision within a month, and that decision was to let the trustworthy-ish users decide 😂

@BenjaminShindel 🫠