What do Manifold users consider the single greatest risk associated with development of AI?
Basic
26
αΉ1111resolved Jan 1
100%79%
Human extinction
1.1%
Surveillance capability
1.9%
Military applications
1.1%
Creativity reverts to the mean -- innovation in music, storytelling and design becomes impossible
1.1%
AI works everyone out of a job and UBI can't save us since wealth is no longer being generated
1.1%
Falls into hands of bad actors
1.1%
This is a secret too dangerous for me to share
1.0%
AI will take everyone's mana by being too good at predicting stuff
13%Other
The options listed are the ones I came up with off top of head. Feel free to add. Resolves to a single answer. I don't intend to bet in this market.
Updated close time to 12/31/2023. Thank you.
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@asmith I agree. I'm not expecting traders to calculate an expected value based on each risk though. That would be very silly considering the broad ranges involved, plus what if someone thinks several of the possibilities existential threats. I'm inclined to think resolving this ambiguity would be a distraction but I'm open to persuasion.
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