According to Manifold users, which possible cause of human extinction by AI needs the most urgent attention?
37
1.3kṀ1368Jun 2
20%
Surveillance capabilities (includes but not limited to "surveillance state" and "surveillance capitalism")
6%
Military applications
0.1%
AI works us all out of a job and UBI cannot save us because wealth no longer being generated
0.1%
Reversion to the mean: innovation in storytelling, jokes and music becomes impossible
2%
Falls into hands of bad actors
0.3%
This is a secret too dangerous for me to share
0.7%
AI becomes so good at predicting things it takes everybody's mana
40%
Maximizing its utility function leads to human extinction because of instrumental convergence.
28%
Unintended Consequences of Non-Malicious Human Use
1.9%Other
Assuming AI leads to human extinction, how will this happen and why should humans care?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
When (if ever) will AI cause human extinction?
Will AI wipe out Manifold by 2030?
5% chance
At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
71% chance
Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)?
Will GPT-5 make Manifold think AI-caused extinction is more likely?
58% chance
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
53% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI?
10% chance
If AGI causes human extinction before 2100, which type of misalignment will be the biggest cause?
At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
73% chance
At the beginning of 2029, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
77% chance