Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if an ICE agent kills an American citizen between now and February 28, 2026. Resolution will be based on verified reports from credible news sources confirming that a person killed by an ICE agent was a U.S. citizen. The death must occur during an ICE operation or enforcement action. Deaths in ICE custody are excluded from this market.

Background

There have been at least 26 shootings by immigration agents since January 20, 2025, of which 6 have resulted in deaths. On January 7, 2026, Renée Good, a 37-year-old American citizen, was fatally shot in Minneapolis, Minnesota, by United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent Jonathan Ross. On January 24, US Border Patrol agents shot and killed Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old American citizen, nurse, and resident of south Minneapolis. Good's killing was the ninth time in five states and Washington, D.C., that ICE agents had opened fire on people since September 2025. The ICE and Border Patrol shootings show a pattern that policing experts say is alarming: officers firing into cars and injuring and killing drivers. In the majority of the shootings, officers have fired into cars.

Considerations

As part of the Trump administration's sweeping deportation efforts during his second presidency, ICE agents have been increasingly involved in violent confrontations with migrants and US citizens as part of the agency's shift to more aggressive immigration enforcement. Stephen Miller, the key architect of Trump's cruel immigration agenda, assured ICE agents back in October—including questionable recruits with insufficient training—that they have "federal immunity." The market covers a 34-day window (January 25 - February 28, 2026) during an active period of heightened ICE enforcement operations.