Will Polls be off in 2024?
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5
แน159Jan 1
64%
chance
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Pretty subjective market, so I'll go based on the opinion of Nate Silver and/or 538 and resolve N/A if ambiguous.
But generally positive sentiments about polls = not off, negative sentiments about polls = off.
Context:
2016 - off (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-missed-trump-we-asked-pollsters-why/)
2018 - not off (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2018-midterm-forecasts-did/)
2020 - off (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/)
2022 - not off (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/)
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