How will the polls and narratives perform in the 2024 US presidential election? [MC - add responses]
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99%
Averages "underestimate" Trump
71%
Georgia is most accurately polled swing state
35%
"2016 Repeat"
22%
"End of polling" media narrative
14%
At least 1 battleground margin avg off by 5+ points
11%
"2022 Repeat"
11%
NYT/Siena is "highly accurate"
1.3%
National margin avg spot on (±1 point)
1.2%
Averages "underestimate" Harris

Polling averages will be based on FiveThirtyEight as of election day.

Where there are quotation marks in the answers, I am referring to media / politics twitter dominant narratives. Determined by a clear majority of the narrative. If unclear, then (1st) Nate Silver's take, then (2nd) my take (if I'm >75% confident). Real close calls go 50% or N/A. I won't bet on these.

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bought Ṁ100 "2022 Repeat" NO

I haven't seen a consistent "end of polling" media narrative.

bought Ṁ100 Georgia is most accu... YES

Based on this (from Silver Bulletin), Georgia is the most accurate, none were off by 5+.

Other averages could differ.

At least one non-swing state votes the "wrong" way

To be clear, this should resolve YES iff any of the following jurisdictions votes for the given party:

  • Republican: anywhere in New England except ME-2, plus NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, IL, MN, NE-2, NM, CO, CA, OR, WA, HI;

  • Democratic: SC, FL, AL, MS, TN, KY, WV, OH, IN, IA, MO, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE except the second district, SD, ND, MT, ID, WY, UT, AK.

In other words, the result in the following states does not affect this question: PA, MI, WI, NC, GA, AZ, NV.

bought Ṁ15 Georgia is most accu... NO

Fun post-election narrative based markets anyone?

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