How will the polls and narratives perform in the 2024 US presidential election? [MC - add responses]
12
1.1kṀ4748resolved Jan 21
Resolved
YESAverages "underestimate" Trump
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YESGeorgia is most accurately polled swing state
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50%"End of polling" media narrative
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NO"2022 Repeat"
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NO"2016 Repeat"
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NOAverages "underestimate" Harris
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NONYT/Siena is "highly accurate"
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NOAt least 1 battleground margin avg off by 5+ points
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NONational margin avg spot on (±1 point)
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NOAt least one non-swing state votes the "wrong" way
Polling averages will be based on FiveThirtyEight as of election day.
Where there are quotation marks in the answers, I am referring to media / politics twitter dominant narratives. Determined by a clear majority of the narrative. If unclear, then (1st) Nate Silver's take, then (2nd) my take (if I'm >75% confident). Real close calls go 50% or N/A. I won't bet on these.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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