For the purposes of this market battleground state - WI, MI, PA, AZ, GA, NV, NC

RealClearPolitics average - 5-way candidate polling average published on realclearpolling.com e.g https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/wisconsin/trump-vs-biden. The “final polling average” is the last published 5-way candidate polling average on RealClearPolitics before the election date.

To determine the outcome, I will compare the final RealClearPolitics polling average for the top two candidates to the actual election results in each of the specified battleground states. If the difference between the final polling average and the actual election results is 6 or more percentage points for the top two candidates in at least one of these states, the answer will be “Yes.”

For example, if the final RealClearPolitics polling average in Georgia shows Trump +1.2 but Trump wins the state by 7.5 points the difference would be 6.3 points resolving to YES. Or If Nevada is Trump +4.5 but ~~Biden~~ Harris wins by 1.6 that would also apply

This market does not consider the impact or results of third-party candidates. Only the top two candidates’ polling averages and actual results are relevant to this question.

In cases where the margin is close to 6 points (e.g., 5.95 points), the authoritative results will be taken from the official state election results published by the respective state’s election authority.