Many people are saying this year Trump will do worse than expected, due to overperforming in the Republican primary polls, however he has exceeded expectations twice in presidential elections. Will that change in 2024?
I will take the RealClearPolling General Election Average on the day of the election (currently +0.1 Harris).
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
Resolves YES If the difference in popular vote between Trump and the Democratic candidate in the actual election is >=1 point better for Trump than the RCP average.
Resolves N/A if Trump is not the Republican Nominee/RCP stops aggregating polls before the election.
Otherwise, resolves NO.
Previous years:
2016 - +3.3% Clinton in polls / +2.1% Clinton in election
2020 - +7.2% Biden in polls / +4.5% Biden in election
1,000
3.00@ShadowyZephyr Are we waiting on further counting? The current national popular vote differential is 1.7 percentage points better for Trump than in the final polling average, with California's vote total now officially finalized.
@ShadowyZephyr Are we still waiting on further counting? Because right now it's +0.1% Harris in polls / -2.1% Harris in election, which seems a fairly safe "YES".
@ShadowyZephyr I think you're resolving based on this version which is currently Harris +0.1, right?
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris