Approval Ratings from 538 or popular successor if defunct.
Tipping Point is rounded to nearest tenth.
Roughly accurate numbers
2004: 46% (R) => R +2.1
2008: 29% (R) => D +9.0
2012: 49% (D) => D + 5.4
2016: 50% (D) => R + 0.7
2020: 40% (R) => D +0.6
2024: 37% (D) => R +1.7
Background
This market examines the relationship between presidential approval ratings and election outcomes, specifically looking at Trump's approval rating on July 4th, 2028, and the eventual tipping point margin in the 2028 presidential election. Historical data shows varying correlations between approval ratings and electoral outcomes:
2004: Bush 46% approval → R +2.1 tipping point
2008: Bush 29% approval → D +9.0 tipping point
2012: Obama 49% approval → D +5.4 tipping point
2016: Obama 50% approval → R +0.7 tipping point
2020: Trump 40% approval → D +0.6 tipping point
2024: Biden 37% approval → R +1.7 tipping point
Resolution Criteria
The market will resolve based on two metrics:
Trump's approval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight (or its most prominent successor if defunct) on July 4th, 2028
The tipping point margin in the 2028 presidential election, defined as the margin of victory in the state that provides the winning candidate their 270th electoral vote when states are ordered by margin
The market will resolve to the option that matches both the approval rating range and tipping point margin range. If either metric cannot be determined (e.g., if FiveThirtyEight no longer exists and has no clear successor), the market will resolve N/A.
Considerations
The tipping point margin will be rounded to the nearest 0.1%
If Trump is not president in 2028 (death, impeachment, resignation) will use latest poll while he was president or JD Vance if Trump not in picture for 2+ years
1,000