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@traders we're back https://manifold.markets/Jubs/trump-approval-rating-441-or-higher

Hmm, does the data change throughout the day?

@ItsMe It definitely can, although it would be unlikely today with the holiday. Tried to resolve ASAP to avoid any issues there with how close this one was.

Okay, RMG was the last chance for Yes. YouGov might even hit on Sep 1st before this market resolves.

I am almost out of end-of-month trading liquidity, so I have a big exit order up for 1 hour at 18% here. @traders

@Panfilo Now at 21%

I'm getting close to too much exposure, but I could still take a big buy at a sufficiently good price.

Approval ratings in the 2nd term historically decline pretty consistently throughout the first year

@thepurplebull

Trump's going sideways

Who is buying YES shares on this? The approval rating is only decreasing and its known that approval ratings go down consistently. Most likely after consumer confidence report, this probability will absolutely PLUMMET.

@NyelUffa Over 6 days variance dwarves the drift

@brod could be, but more likely his approval is going to remain same bc it’s inherently based in psychology, variance is rare and we’ll most likely see some form of “fair value”

@NyelUffa Dump's rating is going sideways brother. Americans love him.

@Symmetry Reagan’s ratings were over 50% most of his career and hit a high of 70%. If Americans love him, why do less than half of the country support him?

@Nyel Did Reagan extort, threaten and rip off long-standing US allies? Did he threaten to annex his NATO-partners? Did Reagan invite the heads of state of friendly countries into the White House to embarrass and attack them in a completely barbaric and feral manner in front of the entire world? Did Reagan weaponise the power of the US state and turn it into a racketeering operation that is mainly directed at those countries that were stupid enough to trust US promises? Every sane country would have seen his approval drop to single digits. The cruelty is part of Trumps appeal and Americans love him for it. That's why they re-elected him.

@Symmetry This is not about politics. Trump very clearly appeals to a segment of the population that is dwindling with the rise of education. Left wing media has determined (rightly so) that the best method to discredit Trump is comedy and slander, this also appeals to a similar segment of the population. We will see, not about politics, about predictive power of previous elections.

@Nyel Lol, POTUS approval ratings are not about politics? What are they about then, sports? I've explained to you why Trump won't be sliding further in the polls, because he is the President of the American people and an extremely popular figure. By your argument, he should be sliding already - but he isn't. And he won't. He's going sideways, because people love him. What leftist media decides is of no consequence to the matter.

@Symmetry Meant that our convo was not about politics lol not gonna get into this on the internet over a prediction market that’s gonna resolve anyways lmao, I sold out of my positions anyways because the trade was beyond my risk tolerance.

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Orders up @traders

@Panfilo @Agh 10k yes at 62% up for one hour if either of you wanna buy/sell

I think this being above 50% is insane, modern approval ratings have almost always gone down over time and this is Donald trump. Once those job losses start getting polled in he will crater. For this to resolve yes, people Will have to change their mind in favour of him

44.2% was Trump's approval at close of the previous market. Instead of making up a number out of my ass each month, I think it may be more interesting to simply use the previous market's close rating, so this market can act as 'higher or lower than the previous month'.