Will DeepMind publish a Nature paper on seismology by 2029?
6
227
245
2030
61%
chance

Context: predicting earthquakes is one of the Nobel-Prize-right-away problems that looks most amenable to machine learning, given enough sensors to collect data. DeepMind leadership likes to allocate resources to such problems.

Resolves YES if there is a paper with at least three Google DeepMind-affiliated authors, published in the Nature journal, that would be listed on https://www.nature.com/subjects/seismology or a similar list maintained by Nature.

Resolves N/A if the Nature journal ceases to exist in the form where DeepMind or a similar organization would consider submitting a major breakthrough there.

Resolves NO otherwise.

If DeepMind gets significantly reorganized before any such paper is published, the market creator (or Manifold admins in case of inactivity) have the final say on what organization should be considered the successor of DeepMind in the spirit of this question.

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