The Financial Times published several predictions for 2023. One of them was the following:
Will there be a string of defaults in Africa?
"Yes. At a minimum, there will be debt restructurings with haircuts for investors. After big write-offs in Africa 20 years ago, debt has crept up as sovereigns have tapped eurobond markets and borrowed bilaterally. Now, as interest rates rise and economies falter in the aftermath of Covid, debt service payments are becoming unsustainable in some countries. Chad, Ethiopia and Zambia have signed up for the G20 Common Framework for debt-distressed states. Last year, Ghana clinched an IMF bailout as commercial markets closed. It won’t be the last." David Pilling
Preferably resolves according to reporting from the Financial Times, though I reserve the right to resolve by my own judgement if necessary.
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As best I can see, currently Zambia and Ghana have defaulted. The Guardian is concerned about Kenya and Nigeria, but does not expect a default this year. I think the current probability is fair.
https://guardian.ng/news/fear-of-sovereign-debt-defaults-takes-toll-on-banks-economic-outlook/
@egroj 3 or more, with the caveat that if someone presents a convincing argument that "string" should refer to something else OR if FT suggests it should resolve differently I could be convinced otherwise