Will any African countries federate/merge by 2040?
Will any African countries federate/merge by 2040?
8
112Ṁ2472040
39%
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This question resolves as YES iff any two African countries announce their dissolution as sovereign states and replacement by a single sovereign state. The Senegambian Confederation of the 1980s is partially an example, since both states retained their separate UN membership (but then again, Belarus and Ukraine were separate UN member states from the Soviet Union, so that doesn't really count for much). Another example involving an African country was the United Arab Republic of the late 1950s, when Egypt merged with Syria.
Mergers involving both African and non-African countries count if at least 4/5 of the population is in Africa.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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