Will there be a new currency union in Africa by 2040? (Ṁ450 subsidy)
4
58
785
2040
33%
chance

This question resolves as YES iff any two (or more) African countries give up their national currencies in favor of a new shared currency, issued by a Central Bank or similar authority set up by the countries in question.

If the two CFA francs unify, that counts as YES. If either of them de-pegs from the euro, that is not enough to resolve as YES. Any new countries joining either CFA doesn't resolve as YES either.

If a country unilaterally adopts the currency of another, like Zimbabwe using the South African rand, that is not enough to resolve as YES.

If two or more African countries enter a currency union with countries outside of Africa, this resolves as YES as long as the majority of the GDP PPP of the union, at the time of coming into force, is in African countries.

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issued by a Central Bank or similar authority

What if they adopt some crypto currency or other decentralised form of money?

predicts NO

@Riemann thank you for the question. That is akin to adopting, say, the US dollar or the euro, so it doesn't count. It falls under the Zimbabwe case in the original wording of the question.