Will Max Roser create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Basic
10
345
2028
42%
chance

Max Roser, founder of Our World in Data

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

Get Ṁ600 play money